However, despite the increase in studies in this area, little work has been done to integrate biophysical and socio-economic dimensions when analysing the impact of climate change on livestock productivity and pastoral livelihoods (Moti and Liwenga, 2025; Kirui et al., 2022). Separating the two aspects makes it difficult to establish an integrated perspective on the interactions between climatic stress and its influence on livestock production and socioeconomic conditions among pastoral communities. Furthermore, the integration of the socio-biological aspect—specifically, the effects of environmental stress on livestock behaviour and its impact on productivity—has received less attention in current studies. Meanwhile, livestock mobility, diversity and early warning systems have been extensively analysed in various contexts in terms of their effectiveness in increasing adaptive capacity and mitigating climate change (Bostedt et al., 2023; Hassan et al., 2026; Muricho et al., 2018). However, the influence of social differences based on gender, access to resources and institutional support has yet to be adequately addressed (Ash et al., 2025).

The primary objective of this research is to investigate the impact of climate variability on livestock production and pastoral livelihoods in East Africa. More specifically, the study will examine the impact of climate-related stresses, such as rainfall variability, rising temperatures, droughts, and water scarcity, on livestock performance, including body condition, fertility, milk production, and mortality. The research will also investigate the biophysical consequences of climate impacts relating to pasture access, grazing, water scarcity and energy balance. Furthermore, the study will examine the economic consequences of lower livestock productivity, including income loss, food insecurity, asset sustainability, market participation, and poverty cycles. The study will also identify and classify social consequences such as conflicts and migration arising from scarce resources. Other objectives include identifying and classifying the various adaptation strategies used by pastoralists, and assessing the efficacy of these strategies and the constraints to them.

The assessment of climate adaptation capacity in the region of interest uses a socio-ecological systems approach, associating environmental challenges with the national institutional arrangements designed to respond to them. Despite having similar semi-arid ecologies, pastoral populations in Tanzania, Kenya and Uganda face different political environments, resulting in varying levels of resilience to the adverse effects of climate change. Kenya has adopted devolution and sophisticated ASAL policies to support regional drought resilience and index-based livestock insurance. Conversely, Uganda’s political structure emphasises the sedentarisation and modernisation of customary systems, such as those in the Karamoja sub-region, intending to transform them into commercial agropastoral production systems. Tanzania has a decentralised policy strategy for climate change, whereby adaptation measures in districts such as Hai and Manyara are supported by agricultural development plans. This socio-ecological systems analysis examines how unique institutional structures can either enhance or hinder adaptation efforts in the face of similar climatic changes, such as increased temperature-humidity indices (THI) and pasture shortages.

Within the study area, the target population has adopted different livestock production practices according to their respective micro-ecological environments, indicating a well-defined continuum of climatic adaptations within the East African Cattle Corridor. In Tanzania, however, production dynamics differ significantly from one district to another. In the mountainous Hai District of Tanzania’s northern plains, where crops coexist at high altitudes, the predominant production system is dairy-intensive agro-pastoralism due to demand and proximity to mountain resources (Swai et al., 2014). In contrast, the semi-arid Manyara district is still dominated by the extensive pastoral practices of the Maasai (Galaty, 1982; Homewood et al., 2009). However, internationally, there are some changes happening with respect to traditional boundaries. For example, in Uganda’s Karamoja subregion, the traditional distinction between settled agriculture (ere) and mobile cattle keeping (awi) is gradually merging into mixed agro-pastoral systems (Rugadya, 2006).

A comparative, cross-sectional scoping review design was used to explore the socio-economic effects of climate variability on livestock productivity in Tanzania, Kenya and Uganda through the pastoralist system. This design incorporated qualitative and quantitative research evidence obtained from peer-reviewed articles and institutional documents published between 2021 and 2025. The search strategy involved using major scientific databases and grey literature to collect data, while the PRISMA-ScR criteria were used to select the articles. The study design incorporated a combination of narrative synthesis and comparative analysis to analyse the relationship between climate stress factors, such as rainfall variability, drought and rising temperatures, and the productivity levels of milk yield, fertility and livestock mortality. Furthermore, the socio-economic consequences of factors such as income changes, food insecurity, asset sustainability and conflict were examined. The comparative analysis facilitated by the study design will identify similarities and differences among the cases studied. This will provide a comprehensive understanding of the system and its resilience strategies.

This study employed a scoping review method. This was designed to provide an overview of existing studies on the effects of climate change, adaptation challenges and nature-based approaches in sub-Saharan Africa. A thorough search was conducted across various electronic databases, including Scopus, Web of Science, ScienceDirect, Google Scholar. To enhance clarity and replicability, a specific search string comprising certain keywords and Boolean operators was created for each database. These search strings are presented below: (“Climate variability” or “climate change”) and (“livestock productivity” or “pastoral system” or “livestock production”) and (“East Africa” or “Tanzania” or “Kenya” or “Uganda”).

(“Rainfall variability” or “drought” or “temperature increase” or “heat stress”) and (“livestock performance” or “milk yield” or “mortality” or “fertility”).

(“pastoral livelihoods” or “household income” or “food security” or “asset sustainability”) and (“climate impact” or “climate shock”).

(“adaptation strategy” or “resilience” or “coping mechanism”) and (“pastoralists” or “livestock mobility”).

The search period was from 2021 to 2025, taking into account the current climate conditions in East Africa, including recent drought cycles and experiences of heat stress. To obtain a holistic picture of the topic from both academic and practical standpoints, peer-reviewed journal articles and grey literature were used. Studies with the following characteristics were considered eligible for inclusion: (1) studies conducted in Tanzania, Kenya, Uganda or other parts of East Africa; (2) English-language papers; (3) studies published between 2021 and 2025; and (4) studies involving one of the following topics: climatic challenges, cattle productivity, socio-economic implications or adaptation strategies. Articles addressing issues related to non-pastoral cattle rearing systems were excluded as they were not relevant to the study. The screening process comprised three steps: the title screening stage, the abstract reading stage and the full article screening stage.

This study examines the ASAL regions of East Africa, with a particular focus on the semi-arid ecological zones of the East African Cattle Corridor. This corridor cuts through the territories of Tanzania, Kenya, and Uganda (Figure 1). Such places are ecologically marked by irregular rainfall, frequent droughts, and an increased temperature-humidity index (THI), which pose challenges to the productivity and viability of livestock. In Tanzania, the study focuses on the northern and central plains, specifically the Hai and Manyara districts. In Kenya, the focus is on both the northern and southern rangelands, where pasture shortages are more pronounced. In Uganda, the corridor encompasses regions from the south-west to the north-east, including the Karamoja region, where pastoral production systems are becoming mixed. These countries have been selected because they have similar ecologies and are economically dependent on livestock and livestock-based activities for people’s incomes and GDP, but have different levels of adjustment to climate-related stress.

These papers have been synthesised using thematic and comparative approaches, in line with the aims of this study. The findings were grouped under the following three main themes: (1) the impact of climate variation and an increase in THI on livestock productivity and health; (2) the coping strategies of pastoralists and the challenges they face in adapting to climatic conditions in semi-arid areas; and (3) the impact on livelihoods of climatic stressors. A narrative synthesis approach was used to analyse the literature, given the diversity in design, data type, and methods employed in the papers. Regarding Theme 1, emphasis was placed on the impact of changes in rainfall patterns, drought events, and heat stress on cattle productivity, reproduction, and death rates. The second theme focuses on the challenges faced by pastoral communities in adapting to climate stressors, particularly the lack of access to water sources and pastures, institutional constraints, and restricted mobility. The third theme examines the impact of climatic stressors on livelihoods, including the influence of livestock death rates on resilience and food security.

Stress caused by environmental factors has an adverse effect on biological and economic performance. The data reveal that changes in rainfall patterns and pasture availability result in regular fluctuations in body mass and suboptimal performance (Table 1). High levels of heat stress in recent years, such as in 2024 and 2025, also affect fertility rates and milk yield. The data show that when drought becomes frequent, livestock mortality rates increase significantly. Additionally, increased distances to water sources represent another source of stress, causing energy deficiency (Figure 3). Overall, studies by Moti and Liwenga (2025), Kirui et al. (2022), and others from various countries demonstrate the urgent need for adaptive practices within the agricultural industry to protect rural economies.

As shown in Table 2, climate instability in Tanzania, Kenya, and Uganda has triggered a series of socio-economic crises. These include reduced household income due to low productivity and increased livestock mortality, resulting in decreased dairy production and market attendance (Figure 4). Furthermore, climate instability is associated with food insecurity, as decreased harvests affect household nutrition and increase the need for food aid from outside sources, as reported by Moti and Liwenga (2025).

Furthermore, the findings reveal that economic instability is caused by continuous asset loss, as people sell livestock during droughts (Kirui et al., 2022). Finally, social instability is another consequence of climate change in East Africa. This is due to conflicts arising between migrating communities competing for scarce water supplies and grazing fields. Overall, it should be acknowledged that climate instability affects not only agriculture but also society and the economy.

As can be seen in Table 3, various methods have been used by pastoralists in Tanzania, Kenya, and Uganda to adapt to climate-related hazards. One key approach evident is the ability of pastoralists to move their herds to locations with water and grass in the face of harsh conditions. Additionally, the data suggest a trend of livestock diversification through breeding animals adapted to dry environments, such as camels and goats. Furthermore, livestock owners are venturing into diversified livelihood activities, such as trading, wage employment, and mixed farming, in addition to their livestock businesses. The table shows the importance of combining local knowledge with technological advances when adopting new techniques for early warnings and breeding. By combining various strategies, such as geographical movement, biological breeding, and economic adaptation, a sustainable approach has been developed.

It should be noted that the conclusions drawn from the research findings presented above are strongly supported by the empirical evidence provided by Moti and Liwenga (2025), Kirui et al. (2022) and other relevant sources. This evidence supports the idea that climate variability is one of the main causes of livestock decline in East Africa, affecting both biology and the economy. Increased temperatures coupled with unpredictable rainfall patterns lead to higher temperature-humidity index (THI) values in cattle, resulting in adverse biological outcomes such as reduced reproductive success, decreased milk production and even death (Campos et al., 2022). For example, Moti & Liwenga. (2025) found that 74 per cent of pastoralists in Bagamoyo, Tanzania, reported decreased cattle productivity due to high thermal and humidity effects. Similarly, in Kenya and Uganda, the variable nature of rainfall was found to reduce pasture production and increase the risk of disease in cattle herds (Diem et al., 2024; Ndesanjo et al., 2023; Kirui et al., 2022).

The current analysis revealed that environmental stressors lead to serious socio-economic consequences, creating the ‘pastoralists’ dilemma’, whereby poor livestock production performance endangers their survival. As has been observed in northern Kenya, transformations in pastoral livelihoods have been shown to be fragile. Many households have had to abandon pastoral activities or revert to poverty and subsistence practices due to consistent livestock losses and minimal market participation (Kirui et al., 2022; Hassan et al., 2026). Such volatility directly leads to food insecurity, as lower milk production becomes the main source of nutrition for families, who then rely heavily on food assistance from outside sources (Moti and Liwenga, 2025; Mayanja et al., 2022). Although climate change-driven mobility is a traditional adaptation technique practised by pastoralists, it leads to competition for resources and increases the likelihood of conflicts between communities over grazing areas and water points (Vundi and Koome, 2023; Konaka, 2021). Frequent drought-related shocks also prompt the distress sale of livestock, thereby undermining household capital and pushing communities into greater poverty (Waiswa and Günlü, 2022; Zane and Pica-Ciamarra, 2021). Without technology integration alongside indigenous knowledge, the further erosion of pastoralists’ livestock systems seems inevitable.

This study shows that decreased productivity resulting from environmental factors has a significant impact on the socioeconomic outcomes of pastoralists in East Africa. The effects of rainfall variability, drought and elevated temperatures significantly impact animal productivity, reducing body weight, fertility rates and milk yields (Moti and Liwenga, 2025; Kirui et al., 2022; Sejian et al., 2025; Ndesanjo et al., 2023). Such effects have an adverse economic impact on pastoralists, since reduced milk production means that families will earn fewer funds. Additionally, the death of livestock increases expenses related to replacement and decreases herd size (Waiswa and Günlü, 2022; Zane and Pica-Ciamarra, 2021). These factors limit access to markets, making pastoralists vulnerable.

Furthermore, these climatic conditions reduce the sustainability of assets over time, increasing the risk of poverty among pastoralists (Hassan et al., 2026; Kirui et al., 2022). Research conducted under experimental conditions highlights the importance of improved feeding and management practices, as more productive livestock in laboratories can offset losses caused by climate change (Lijalem and Zereu Hadgu, 2024).

In addition to the drop in income levels, there is also evidence of a link between reduced livestock productivity and issues of food security and asset sustainability. A decrease in milk production negatively impacts the nutritional status of households in pastoralist settings, given that milk is a core component of their diet. Thus, decreased livestock productivity exposes households to food insecurity, as evidenced by Moti and Liwenga (2025). Furthermore, recurring droughts exacerbate food insecurity by forcing the sale of assets such as livestock, leading to poverty and a reduced ability to cope (Kirui et al., 2022; Waiswa and Günlü, 2022). This makes it difficult to achieve asset sustainability in pastoralist settings. This is because livestock provides income and assets that sustain the lives of pastoralists. Another consequence of climate change for livestock is the forced movement of animals to other areas in search of resources (Leal Filho et al., 2023).

However, there are different degrees of success among adaptation and coping measures that have been used by pastoralists in East Africa as ways of dealing with climate change vulnerabilities. Migration is one of these approaches, which allows pastoralists to get access to pasture and water in case of shortages, thus preventing the death of livestock during droughts (Vundi and Koome, 2023). Another strategy that has worked effectively includes livestock diversification, especially through the inclusion of drought-resilient species like goats and sheep, which can provide food security for pastoralists and additional income sources (de Glanville et al., 2020; Sewando et al., 2016). The use of early warning systems, combined with traditional knowledge about changes in precipitation and temperature, increases the ability of herders to make informed decisions regarding weather patterns (Waiswa and Günlü, 2022).

Nevertheless, implementing such strategies is hindered by a number of economic and environmental constraints. Diversifying sources of livelihood to include non-livestock activities is an effective way to ensure stable livelihoods, particularly when the performance of livestock deteriorates due to climatic impacts such as heat stress and drought (Kirui et al., 2022). However, the high costs associated with acquiring inputs such as veterinary support can hinder profitability and resilience (Waiswa and Günlü, 2022). Furthermore, the increasing trend in heat stress levels, as evidenced by changes in THI thresholds (Besteiro et al., 2025), necessitates more advanced solutions, such as breeding new cattle strains and providing cooling systems.

To enhance the resilience of the pastoral system in East Africa, the following activities should be carried out: Involve the relevant stakeholders, such as the Ministries of Livestock and Agriculture in Tanzania, Kenya and Uganda, the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI), the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR), the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the World Bank, the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), private insurance firms and local pastoral cooperatives. They should focus on promoting climate-smart pastoralism, integrating indigenous knowledge such as migration, the pastoral calendar, and diversified herds, with advanced technology. Technological innovations to be introduced should include satellite forage management, early warning systems, and climate advisory services to assist with migration and grazing planning. Pastoralists could also introduce drought-resistant animal species, such as Boran cattle, East African Zebu, Galla goats, and Somali camels.

In order to mitigate vulnerability, governments and their partners need to increase uptake of index-based livestock insurance schemes, such as the Kenya Livestock Insurance Programme (KLIP) and IBLI (Index-Based Livestock Insurance), which protect pastoral resources from the risk of drought. Community-level strategies should involve implementing sustainable measures, such as using solar power to dig boreholes and harvest rainwater, as well as building water reservoirs. Transboundary agreements on grazing should also be established to avoid conflicts. Lastly, processing milk to add value will promote the diversification and sustainability of pastoral livelihoods.

Although the current study provides a detailed cross-border assessment of the East African Cattle Corridor, certain limitations arise from its nature. Firstly, due to the corridor’s extensive geographic scope, variations in the level of data reporting can be expected across Tanzania, Kenya, and Uganda. As such, disparities in historical climatic information and veterinary records may influence THI measurements. Secondly, the current analysis is based on a single time point at which both livestock production levels and pastoral adaptations were analysed. Long-term climate shifts and rapid social and political changes occurring over several decades cannot be accounted for at a single point in time. Thirdly, it is difficult to distinguish the impact of community-level adaptations from the implementation of state policies because, in many cases, pastoralists adapt to changing conditions out of immediate economic necessity, regardless of existing state policies, and vice versa.