Pastoralism is a traditional livelihood integral to the socio-economic structure of arid and semi-arid lands (ASALs), primarily focusing on the raising of livestock, including camels, goats, sheep, and cattle. It provides a foundation for subsistence, income, and cultural identity for millions globally, notably in the Horn of Africa (Faraz et al., 2021; Thornton et al., 2024). This method is distinguished by its adaptable mobility, which allows herders to follow seasonal pastures and water sources—a tactic honed over millennia to thrive in uncertain conditions. The ultimate purpose of researching pastoral susceptibility to drought, with a particular emphasis on camel mortality, is to identify crucial elements that either increase or reduce these effects, allowing for more effective adaptation techniques and governmental interventions (Menghistu et al., 2020). The resilience of pastoralist communities, whose livelihoods are inevitably linked to healthy livestock, is constantly threatened by the increasing severity and frequency of drought events brought on by climate change. This poses an existential threat that results in significant livestock losses, diminished livelihoods, and increased vulnerability, making this research crucial (Tofu, 2024).

Historically, arid and semi-arid regions globally have always struggled with climate change. However, the frequency and severity of drought episodes have significantly increased in recent decades, pushing a large portion of food production outside safe climatic spaces (Kummu et al., 2021). This global problem emerges as intense heatwaves, floods, and especially severe droughts, which have a considerable impact on pastoralist livelihoods (Parkes et al., 2022). On the African continent, particularly the Horn of Africa, drought has been a common occurrence that has influenced societal structures, migration patterns, and the economy. However, recent drought events have been exceptional in their intensity, resulting in massive displacement, food insecurity, and humanitarian crises (Shibru et al., 2023). Somalia, a country already dealing with decades of conflict and instability, has faced repetitive climate-related shocks and natural disasters that necessitate learning from historical patterns to build future resilience (Coly et al., 2023). Since 1991, temperatures in the region have risen steadily, with projections indicating a continued increase in climate extremes and a shift in agro-climatic zones by the end of the century (Demissie et al., 2025). Studies of pastoral resilience and livestock mortality are especially important since these climate changes intensify pre-existing vulnerabilities.

Somalia highlights the important link between pastoralism and climate vulnerability, where livestock management remains a primary strategy for navigating environmental stress (Awale, 2024). Since livestock production is a cornerstone of the national economy, its stability is closely linked to the wellbeing of pastoral systems. In Somalia, the agrarian and pastoral context is deeply intertwined with harsh ecological realities. Livelihood activities span a continuum from purely nomadic herding to localized agro-pastoralism. Nomadic herders rely exclusively on extensive, communal rangelands, navigating complex social networks to access ephemeral water points and grazing lands. Conversely, agro-pastoralists and urban-adjacent herders integrate livestock rearing with opportunistic crop cultivation or market trading. Camels are crucial assets and symbols of prosperity and resilience for pastoralists because they are so well suited to the harsh, dry circumstances of this area; indeed, a shift toward camel and goat farming is often seen as a necessary adaptation to sustain milk production under lower inputs and higher emissions (Rahimi et al., 2022). They provide milk, meat, revenue, and essential transportation, yet their future distribution is threatened by shifting habitats due to climate change (Abrhaley and Tesfay, 2025).

Despite their well-recognized adaptation to arid environments, camels remain vulnerable to a range of health and management challenges that can contribute to mortality, particularly during prolonged droughts. Previous studies conducted in pastoral camel production systems in the Horn of Africa, particularly the Somali Region of Ethiopia, have identified camelpox, contagious ecthyma, respiratory diseases, tick infestations, mange, and calf diarrheal diseases as major health constraints affecting camel survival and productivity (Hussein et al., 2024). Drought conditions can exacerbate these challenges by reducing feed and water availability, weakening animal immunity, increasing physiological stress, and heightening susceptibility to infectious and parasitic diseases. High camel calf mortality has been reported as a major constraint to herd growth and pastoral livelihoods, highlighting the interaction between environmental stressors, disease burden, and husbandry practices (Hussein et al., 2024). Furthermore, recent evidence from Somaliland demonstrated that camel mortality is shaped not only by climatic factors but also by socio-demographic and environmental conditions, emphasizing the need for a comprehensive understanding of mortality drivers in Somali pastoral communities (Hassan and Salih, 2026).

The recurring droughts in East Africa have led to enormous losses, with human-induced climate change significantly increasing the severity of recent drought events (Kimutai et al., 2025). Despite their well-known resilience, even camels are giving in to harsher circumstances, underscoring an essential research gap: while earlier research has touched on general livestock susceptibility, nationally representative evidence on drought-related camel mortality and its determinants across Somalia remains limited (North et al., 2026). It is important to close this gap in order to design focused policies that can strengthen Somali pastoralists’ ability to adjust to future climate shocks.

In this study, drought-related camel mortality is conceptualized not merely as the biological consequence of acute water scarcity, but as a complex outcome driven by cascading socio-ecological failures. Direct causal factors include starvation due to rangeland depletion and dehydration from the drying of surface water. Indirect causal factors include disease outbreaks, heat stress, and the exhaustion of physical reserves during extended migrations. Furthermore, systemic constraints, such as restricted access to traditional pastures, localized resource-based conflicts, and delays in emergency relief programs, act as critical catalysts that transform a severe climatic hazard into a fatal event for livestock.

Previous studies have frequently given a general picture of how drought affects pastoral livelihoods, but they have seldom examined the precise, complex determinants influencing species-specific mortality at a granular level across a variety of geographic and socioeconomic situations (Cho et al., 2025). This absence is especially significant for camels in Somalia, given their importance to the economy and culture. While generalized vulnerability assessments exist, there is a need to track adaptation from both governmental and livestock keeper perspectives to ensure policies are grounded in local realities (Njuguna et al., 2024). This study addresses this gap by using data from the 2020 Somalia Demographic and Health Survey (SDHS), a nationally representative, high-quality dataset. This study goes beyond broad trends by assessing socio-demographic and economic characteristics, as well as self-reported camel death, to determine the particular risk factors that lead to camel loss at the household level. The main objectives are to determine the national prevalence and regional patterns of camel mortality due to drought, identify associated socioeconomic drivers, and provide evidence-based insights to inform policies that improve the resilience of Somali pastoralist communities.

This study presents a fresh, nationally representative examination of the causes of camel mortality in Somalia. By focusing exclusively on homes that have lost camels, the study delves deeper into the factors that contribute to drought being the leading cause of mortality. The findings show that drought is responsible for over half (45.91%) of all reported camel death, and that this attribution is systematically related to a household’s geographic location, nomadic livelihood, and head age. These findings reframe our understanding of pastoral vulnerability, implying that risk is defined not only by the occurrence of a shock, but also by the structural and socioeconomic constraints that limit a household’s ability to mitigate it (Ahmed et al., 2025). This aligns with recent empirical evidence from Somaliland, which identifies geographic hotspots and environmental determinants as the primary drivers of camel loss, often independent of a household’s individual socio-economic status (Hassan and Salih, 2026).

The most significant finding is that drought-related mortality varies geographically. In certain areas, the multivariable analysis showed significantly higher odds of attributing camel deaths to drought. Notably, compared to the reference location of Awdal, households in Sool had 7.74 times the odds of attributing mortality to drought (AOR = 7.74, p < 0.001). Nugaal (AOR = 4.12, p < 0.001) and Sanaag (AOR = 4.07, p < 0.001) showed similar, but less severe, patterns of increased risk. This is consistent with the distinct 2019–2020 climatic footprint observed in northern and central Somalia, where severe rainfall deficits decimated pastures. It also aligns with research that shows these areas are the centers of compounding crises where long-term resource-based conflict and environmental degradation converge with intensifying climate shocks (Thalheimer, 2023). Conversely, the protective impact shown in Gedo implies that regional contexts involving better rainfall access, proximity to riverine ecosystems, stronger transboundary resource management and local adaptation may improve environmental sustainability and human wellbeing (Defere et al., 2024).

This study presents an intriguing paradox about nomadic ways of life. Although mobility is a crucial resilience trait, nomadic households were 2.87 times more likely than urban households to attribute their camel losses to drought (AOR = 2.87, p < 0.001). This finding is consistent with recent evidence from Somaliland, where nomadic status was a primary driver of increased camel mortality (Hassan and Salih, 2026). This finding aligns with evidence that pastoral mobility in the Horn of Africa is increasingly curtailed by biophysical challenges and shifting land-use patterns, transforming a traditional strength into a potential liability during extreme events (Treydte et al., 2026). When movement is restricted, the inability to “navigate” out of drought-stricken zones strains animal health and isolates households from adaptive services (Stacey et al., 2025).

The higher vulnerability of households led by elderly people (AOR = 1.59 for over-54 age group) is also substantial. This may represent a disjunction between traditional ecological knowledge and the exceptional severity of current climate extremes, as well as reduced physical capacity for the intensive labor required to sustain herds during a crisis (Vogt et al., 2024). Notably, wealth lost statistical power in the adjusted model, suggesting that individual household assets provide inadequate insulation against community-wide (covariate) shocks. This emphasizes that resilience is less a result of individual capital and more a consequence of the stability of broader socio-ecological and governance systems (Berhanu et al., 2024).

The study’s conclusions have important implications for creating interventions. Conventional risk-sharing systems are inadequate for covariate risks like drought, making formal risk transfer methods essential (Vyas et al., 2021). Index-Based Livestock Insurance (IBLI) offers a potent model by utilizing satellite-derived data (NDVI) to automatically reimburse pastoralists when conditions deteriorate, overcoming the high transaction costs of traditional insurance (Linhoff et al., 2023). However, establishing such systems in Somalia requires careful, localized execution to ensure credibility and trust. To implement IBLI effectively on the ground, policies must anchor these products in Takaful (Islamic cooperative insurance) principles to align with regional religious and cultural values. Furthermore, implementation should heavily utilize Somalia’s robust mobile money infrastructure (e.g., platforms like EVC Plus or Sahal), which allows for low-cost premium collection and automated payouts directly to remote nomadic herders. Finally, rather than relying solely on formal state institutions which may lack reach in remote regions, governments and NGOs must co-design and implement these systems alongside trusted local governance mechanisms, including customary clan-based Xeer systems and established local community-based organizations, to verify pastoralists’ statuses and mitigate disputes.

Beyond formal insurance, innovative community-based methods are critical for post-shock recovery. The practice of camel leasing in Somali villages provides a culturally embedded avenue for resilience, enabling impoverished households to borrow nursing camels from wealthier relatives to rebuild herds and maintain nutrition (Decker et al., 2025; Farah et al., 2004). This mechanism combines social capital with economic opportunity, supplementing formal institutional safety nets.

Finally, the study underlines the value of proactive coping. Successful drought management requires the integration of humanitarian and development aid with improved early warning systems (Mohamed et al., 2025). Tailored climate forecasts can inform proactive interventions, such as early de-stocking and market support, which allow pastoralists to make educated decisions before crises worsen and prices collapse (Funk et al., 2023). Interventions must therefore concentrate on bolstering the overall market and information ecology rather than offering only reactive emergency assistance.

This study demonstrates that drought-related camel mortality is a widespread crisis in Somalia, affecting nearly 46% of camel-owning households. The findings reveal that this mortality is not uniform across the country but is heavily concentrated in specific geographic hotspots. Households in the Sool, Nugaal, and Sanaag regions face the highest risk, with Sool reporting a staggering mortality rate of nearly 73%. These results indicate that regional environmental conditions and local constraints create pockets of extreme vulnerability that traditional pastoral coping mechanisms are currently unable to overcome.

A significant finding of this research is the vulnerability of nomadic households, who are nearly three times more likely to report camel losses than those in urban settings. This suggests that the traditional nomadic advantage of mobility has become a liability during modern, prolonged droughts. Furthermore, the study identifies the age of the household head as a critical factor, with households led by individuals over 54 years being significantly more susceptible to livestock loss. This highlights a growing gap between traditional management knowledge and the increasing severity of climate shocks, as well as the physical labor limitations faced by older pastoralists.

Crucially, the multivariable analysis shows that household wealth and the sex of the household head do not independently protect camels from drought-related death. When geographic and livelihood factors are accounted for, even “rich” households suffer significant losses. This reframes camel mortality as a systemic failure rather than an individual economic one. It proves that drought in Somalia is a community-wide shock that transcends individual household assets, underscoring the urgent need for structural interventions rather than relying on private household resources.