Sheep (Ovis aries) were domesticated independently in southeastern Anatolia, Mesopotamia, and western Iran approximately 7,000 years before present (BP) (Jackson et al., 2020). This species has accompanied human societies throughout the development of diverse civilisations. Its high adaptability enables it to thrive across a wide range of terrains and climatic conditions. Through selective breeding driven by human needs and regional environmental conditions, 418 breeds have been developed worldwide (Rasali et al., 2006). Today, sheep constitute one of the most important small ruminant livestock species in both developed and developing countries. Although sheep generally adapt rapidly to new environmental conditions, several factors may cause fluctuations in their population, despite the substantial growth of the global human population (Figure 1).

These factors are rooted in cultural, infrastructural, economic, and climatic conditions. For example, certain religious traditions involve the ritual sacrifice of sheep (Brooke, 1987). Infrastructural and economic challenges include insufficient government support for shepherds, which limits their ability to cover the costs of sheep husbandry, and the absence of consistent and structured breeding programmes. Climatic factors, including climate change, pasture degradation, harsh winters, and extreme weather events, further exacerbate these challenges (Wanjala et al., 2023). In addition, increased predator density has been identified as a contributing factor affecting sheep populations (Paterson et al., 2021).

Iran is recognised as one of the original centres of sheep domestication. Its diverse climate and geography have contributed to the development of 27 breeds of indigenous sheep over thousands of years. The majority of sheep production in Iran takes place within rural and nomadic systems, while only a small proportion is managed using industrial farming systems. Consequently, the national sheep population is highly susceptible to external environmental, economic, and social factors. According to official statistics, Iran has experienced a notable decline in its sheep population in recent years (Figure 2).

The primary objective of sheep production is meat, followed by milk and wool. These production goals are closely linked to effective reproductive and breeding management. Inadequate management systems may lead to reproductive disorders, including abortions caused by infectious diseases, which result in reduced meat and milk production, delayed breeding cycles, and significant economic losses (Ali et al., 2019). In southeastern Iran, abortion in Baluchi sheep has been associated with Brucella melitensis, Coxiella burnetii, and Salmonella abortusovis, as determined by molecular diagnostic techniques (Mahdavi Roshan et al., 2018). In northeastern Iran, Mycoplasma ovipneumoniae and Mycoplasma arginini have been confirmed as the etiological agents of pneumonia in sheep (Daee et al., 2020).

Effective grazing and pasture management represent additional critical challenges. From a global perspective, environmental changes, including climate change and global warming, contribute to pasture degradation, reduced vegetation density and thermal stress, which affect both forage resources and livestock (Sawyer and Narayan, 2019). At the regional level, the uncontrolled conversion of pastureland into cultivated agricultural land reduces available grazing areas further (Gebresamuel et al., 2022). These pressures create harsh production environments in which breeders struggle to provide adequate feed and nutrition, ultimately reducing profit margins and, in some cases, forcing producers to exit the sector (Tüfekci and Çelik, 2021). Nevertheless, small ruminants naturally depend on grazing systems, which support animal welfare and hoof health. Pasture-based feeding systems may also offer nutritional advantages compared with forage silage under certain conditions (Masters and Thompson, 2015).

Another important issue is the shift in human lifestyles from nomadism towards urbanisation. This transition has generated labour shortages in pastoral systems, contributed to rural poverty, and reduced purchasing power for animal products in some communities. For producers, financial constraints limit the adoption of advanced technologies that could improve breeding efficiency and overall productivity (Alders et al., 2021). Although localised increases in sheep numbers may occur in certain regions, the overall national trend indicates a decline in the sheep population (FAOSTAT, 2023).

A further challenge relates to the lack of consensus among experts and researchers regarding the primary causes of population decline and the most effective policy responses. To address these issues, the present study employs the Delphi method to formulate a comprehensive policy package for the development of the sheep breeding industry in Iran. The objectives of the study are:

To describe the challenges associated with the decline in the sheep population;

These objectives are achieved by reaching consensus among a panel of experts. Panel members respond to open-ended questions, review summarised responses, rank the importance of compiled items, and indicate their level of agreement with each proposed statement through iterative rounds (Powell, 2003).

The present study adopts a qualitative research paradigm. It is applied and descriptive in terms of its methodological approach. Given the novelty of the topic and the limited number of previous studies addressing the specific challenges and solutions related to the decline in the population of sheep in Iran, the classical three-round Delphi technique was employed. The core features of the Delphi method include multiple rounds of questionnaires, structured feedback, the opportunity for participants to revise their responses, and the anonymity of responses (Thangaratinam and Redman, 2005).

The present study employed a mixed-methods design, integrating qualitative and quantitative approaches within a Delphi framework. To collect the required data, a panel of experts in sheep breeding was recruited from three sectors: academia, industry, and governmental administration. All participants had more than 20 years of experience working professionally with sheep breeding and were involved in administrative departments responsible for macro-level decision-making within the country (n = 18). A representative panel of 13 members can provide a reliability coefficient of 0.90 (Harder et al., 2010), indicating that the panel size in the present study was adequate to ensure methodological reliability.

The researchers administered a series of three questionnaire rounds by mail. In the first round, participants were asked to respond to two open-ended questions: (1) What are the reasons for the decrease in the sheep population in the country in recent years? and (2) What are the solutions to prevent the decrease in the sheep population in the country? The responses were analysed and consolidated into 47 challenge statements and 57 solution statements (Figure 3).

In the second round, panel members were asked to evaluate each of the identified challenges and solutions using a five-point Likert-type scale (1 = strongly disagree, 2 = disagree, 3 = uncertain, 4 = agree, and 5 = strongly agree). Participants were also invited to revise, refine, or comment on the listed items to ensure that the statements accurately reflected their perspectives.

Based on the results of the second round and the comments provided by participants, the third-round questionnaire was developed. At this stage, the list of challenges and solutions was refined and reduced to 28 and 52 items, respectively. The third round aimed to achieve consensus. Panel members were provided with both individual and aggregated group results from the second round and were asked to indicate whether they agreed or disagreed with each of the 28 challenge statements and 52 solution statements. The level of agreement required for consensus was determined a priori at 70%. Items that did not receive agreement from at least 70% of panel members were excluded from the final list of challenges and solutions. As noted by McCampbell and Stewart (1992), consensus in the majority of Delphi studies is typically achieved by the third round. Finally, the confirmed challenges and solutions were categorised according to the conceptual similarity of their components.

Based on the findings, the discussion is organised into two main sections: challenges and solutions. In the challenges section, 19 items were identified and categorised into the following domains: ecological, communication, economic, supportive, lifestyle, educational, and animal breeding. In parallel, the confirmed solutions were categorised into education and extension, genetic improvement, facilitation and support, human resources, fodder supply management, branding, and international interaction.

Across these categories, several challenges demonstrated strong interrelationships despite being classified under different domains. For example, within the ecological, supportive, and lifestyle domains, the following challenges showed high levels of agreement (93%, 83%, and 80%, respectively): drought, decreased pasture quality and unstable breeding conditions due to changing rainfall patterns; lack of development of side professions related to sheep by-products; and changes in villagers’ lifestyles accompanied by declining interest in labour-intensive occupations such as sheep breeding. Although categorised separately, these factors are closely interconnected in practice.

Increasing drought stress, together with the reduction of natural pastures and water resources, threatens the sustainability of extensive sheep production systems. These pressures directly affect sheep nutrition, health status, and overall farm productivity (Scocco et al., 2016). Comparable findings have been reported in fat-tailed lambs subjected to feed restriction, where nutritional stress significantly influenced growth performance and metabolic parameters (Moghaddam et al., 2021).

The development of complementary or side businesses could provide sheep farmers with alternative income streams and enhance their economic resilience. By-products such as wool, hides, and manure can be processed and marketed, contributing to a more diversified and sustainable production model while creating additional employment opportunities within rural communities (Hatziminaoglou and Boyazoglu, 2011; Lal et al., 2020). Furthermore, sheep production is inherently labour-intensive, requiring continuous management of herding, feeding, and animal care. Declining interest in such occupations has led to shortages of skilled and motivated labour, thereby reducing production efficiency. Labour-intensive activities such as sheep rearing often generate lower incomes compared with emerging opportunities in other sectors, making them less attractive to rural populations seeking more stable and profitable livelihoods (Dorji et al., 2017).

To address these challenges, experts have proposed several supportive and structural solutions, including recognising shepherding as a high-risk occupation and providing appropriate insurance and social services; promoting rural production and consumption patterns to strengthen local economies; establishing local markets for rural products; allocating low-interest financial facilities to sheep breeders; guaranteeing government purchase of livestock products (similar to wheat procurement policies); utilising the capacity of nomadic communities for pasture management and border protection alongside livestock production; and preventing pasture degradation and land-use conversion.

Within the communication and economic domains, two major challenges received particularly high levels of agreement (93% and 89%, respectively): the absence of strong organisations to support sheep breeders (including unions and cooperatives) and insufficient income relative to production costs, which discourages new investment.

In the absence of effective cooperatives or professional unions, individual breeders often lack the collective bargaining power to negotiate favourable prices for outputs (e.g., meat and wool) or inputs (e.g., feed and veterinary services). This weakens their market position and reduces profitability. Organised structures can facilitate knowledge exchange, resource sharing, and the dissemination of best practices. Moreover, cooperatives can provide financial support mechanisms to help breeders manage risks during economic or environmental crises, thereby promoting long-term sustainability (Valiev and Khafizov, 2021).

When revenues fail to offset production costs, the financial viability of sheep farming is undermined. Under these conditions, existing producers struggle to sustain operations, and potential investors are discouraged from entering the sector. This investment gap hinders modernisation, limits the adoption of advanced technologies and improved breeding strategies, and ultimately reduces sector productivity and competitiveness. As a result, breeders may lose motivation to continue their activities (Akcaoz et al., 2021).

Proposed solutions to these economic and organisational challenges include forming rural cooperatives and unions to pool capital and establish larger herds; cultivating offshore to provide small ruminant producers with low-cost fodder; strengthening trade relations with Arab countries and prioritising meat export over live animal export; and issuing export certificates to qualified breeders to enhance their financial capacity and market access.

Finally, two closely related challenges were identified in the educational and animal breeding domains encompassed: low literacy levels among some breeders and the absence of systematic training programmes, and the relatively low efficiency of certain national sheep breeds under closed, industrial production systems.

Effective sheep breeding programmes depend on accurate record keeping related to performance traits, genetics, health status, and growth parameters (Abbasi et al., 2012). Limited literacy and inadequate training hinder the maintenance of such records and constrain evidence-based decision-making in selective breeding. The absence of structured educational programmes also reduces breeders’ awareness of best practices in disease prevention, nutrition, reproductive management, and genetic improvement, thereby limiting productivity gains (Nel et al., 2023).

If indigenous breeds demonstrate lower performance in industrial systems, producers may shift towards commercial breeds that are better adapted to intensive conditions. This trend could accelerate the erosion of native genetic resources and reduce overall genetic diversity, thereby weakening long-term resilience to environmental change and disease challenges. While many indigenous breeds perform well under extensive grazing systems, they may exhibit reduced productivity, elevated stress responses, and increased health risks in closed housing systems characterised by different feeding and management regimes (Wanjala, 2024).

To address these issues, experts have proposed enhancing breeders’ knowledge and encouraging greater participation in sheep production; utilising superior genetic resources to improve meat production efficiency in closed systems; expanding artificial insemination programmes to disseminate elite genes; establishing nucleus herds and transferring genetic material to commercial flocks; and preventing unplanned crossbreeding and indiscriminate hybridisation among sheep breeds. These findings are consistent with previous research highlighting the importance of structured breeding programmes in improving growth performance and carcass traits in native sheep populations (Lee et al., 2019).

This study identified the key environmental and socio-economic challenges that threaten the sustainability of Iran’s sheep industry, including drought, rangeland degradation, low profitability, and weak institutional support. By applying the Delphi method, expert consensus was achieved on a set of practical and policy-oriented solutions to address these challenges.

To operationalise the findings, rural sheep cooperatives should be legally strengthened to enhance their collective marketing capabilities, improve their access to financial resources, and facilitate structured export mechanisms. Concurrently, the development of a national climate-resilient rangeland and forage management programme is essential to prevent land degradation and stabilise feed resources. In addition, a coordinated breeding and training strategy is required to enhance breeders’ knowledge, expand artificial insemination services, establish nucleus herds, and preserve indigenous genetic resources while improving overall productivity.

The effective implementation of these measures depends on close collaboration between government agencies, industry stakeholders, and educational institutions. The adoption of these integrated strategies could contribute to the revitalisation, resilience, and long-term sustainability of Iran’s sheep sector. Furthermore, the proposed framework could serve as a practical policy model for other developing countries facing comparable structural, economic, and environmental challenges in their livestock industries.

As with any research, this study has limitations that should be acknowledged. In the second Delphi round, items with mean scores below 3 were excluded, and in the third round, items that did not achieve at least 70% agreement were omitted. Although this threshold-based approach is methodologically consistent with Delphi procedures, it may have resulted in the exclusion of nuanced or contested issues that could still hold policy relevance. This limitation reflects an inherent methodological trade-off in consensus-based research and should be considered when interpreting the findings.