In the face of the escalating challenges posed by climate change, smallholder agricultural producers are positioned at the forefront of vulnerability. The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (IPCC, 2023) defines vulnerability as the propensity or predisposition to be adversely affected, and encompasses a variety of concepts and elements including sensitivity or susceptibility to harm and lack of capacity to cope and adapt. Majority of livestock production systems heavily rely on mixed agricultural systems, combining both crop and livestock production (Beddington et al., 2012; Harrison et al., 2014b; Langworthy et al., 2018). The livestock sector plays a crucial role in the livelihood of local communities and generates income in rural areas (Harrison et al., 2014a; Wetende et al., 2018). The sector employs 1.3 billion people around the world, supporting the livelihoods of 600 million poor smallholder farmers in developing countries and acts as a risk reduction strategy and provides important nutrients and traction for smallholder crop and pasture producers (Thornton, 2010). The IMF has estimated that Agriculture contributes 5.7 billion USD to Somalia’s GDP, with livestock alone contributing 2.28 billion USD, which is equivalent to 40% of the total agricultural contribution to the GDP (Behnke and Muthami, 2011). The sector contributes more than 60% of the total GDP and 80% of foreign exchange earnings (Mire Mohamed et al., 2015). Despite its high contribution to the overall economy, this sector faces many challenges, including climate-related disasters such as unpredictable weather patterns, heightened risks of droughts, excessive floods, and limited access to essential resources like water and grazing lands (Etana et al., 2022; Kotir, 2011).

In the past few years, addressing the impacts of climate change has emerged as a significant issue for farmers, researchers, and policymakers alike. The process of adaptation in agriculture involves tailoring farmers perception and knowledge into the adaptation and decision-making process within the agricultural sector. Several reasons have been highlighted in the literature that emphasize the paramount importance of considering perception and adaptation strategies equally when dealing with climate change impacts (Karki et al., 2020; Savo et al., 2016; Singh et al., 2017). For instance, smallholder producers in Somalia observe their surroundings and make decisions based on their perceptions, which can lead to maladaptation due to incorrect perception, incomplete information, and biased cognitions. The success of any farmer, including smallholder producers, is influenced by their perceptions, peer networks, experience, capital availability, location, and previous strategies they have implemented for adaptation (Harrison et al., 2014b; Ibrahim et al., 2018; Meier et al., 2020; Phelan et al., 2015; Shahpari et al., 2021). Therefore, understanding farmer perspectives on climate change, the steps they have taken to adapt, and the factors influencing those actions are crucial for improving policy formulation aimed at addressing the difficulties farmer face due to climate change (Shahpari et al., 2021; Fosu-Mensah, et al., 2012). Efforts to understand how farmer perceive climate change and strategies in the context of fodder and livestock production has not been well studied (Masud et al., 2017; Niles and Mueller, 2016; Thornton, 2010).

While previous studies have explored the topic of adaptation strategies in the context of climate change (Chang-Fung-Martel et al., 2021; Harrison et al., 2014b; Harrison, 2021; Liu et al., 2020; Liu et al., 2021; Phelan et al., 2015), our study offers a unique contribution by focusing on “intended” adaptation strategies and their collective impact among smallholder fodder producers in Somalia. Existing literature has primarily concentrated on examining actual adaptation strategies (Arbuckle et al., 2014; Liu et al., 2021; Ogra et al., 2020; Phelan et al., 2015), with limited attention given to the intended strategies. By investigating the intended adaptation strategies (Niles et al., 2016), our study recognizes producers’ forward-looking needs, priorities, and capacities in adapting to climate change. The inclusion of intended adaptation strategies promotes proactive risk management, a sense of ownership, and enhances the likelihood of successful adaptation outcomes (Muleke et al., 2022; van Aalst et al., 2008). Our research fills this gap in the literature and sheds light on the interconnectedness between perception and adaptation strategies in the context of smallholder fodder production in Somalia (Niles et al., 2016).

The objectives of this case study on Somaliland are to (1) analyse the perception of smallholder fodder producers regarding the influence of climate variability, (2) investigate the actual and intended adaptation strategies employed by these producers and identify barriers to adoption, and (3) examine the relationship between livelihood characteristics (household income, farm size, and years of production) and demographic factors (knowledge level and gender) in relation to adaptation strategy adoption. By addressing these objectives, the study seeks to enhance understanding of smallholder fodder producers’ perceptions, adaptation strategies, and the factors that shape their decision-making processes in the face of climate change.

In contrast to numerous other areas, (Akponikpè et al., 2010; Arshad et al., 2022; Khan et al., 2020; Niles et al., 2016), we showed that most Smallholder Fodder Producers (SFPs) perceived climate change through a lens of changes in rainfall and temperature. However, the perceptions of climatic trends exhibit pronounced spatial heterogeneity across the study sites. Although a ubiquitous increase in temperature was reported (Kima et al., 2015), the precipitation trends showed divergent patterns. In Wajaale, only 30% of respondents concurred that rainfall has declined, in contrast to the higher proportions in Beer and Xaaxi. This difference is attributed to the prevailing weather patterns, as Wajaale experiences greater mean annual rainfall relative to other study locations (Abdulkadir, 2017; Hartmann and Sugelle 2009). The meteorological analysis corroborates these perceptions, illustrating a more pronounced increasing trend in precipitation for Wajaale. Conversely, the eastern regions of Somaliland have witnessed more frequent and prolonged drought episodes during the study periods, which likely shapes the respondents’ perspectives on the decreasing rainfall trends in those areas (Abdulkadir, 2017).

We found that majority of SFPs observed a greater incidence of late onset rather than early cessation of rainfall across the study sites. These observations suggest that SFPs are more preoccupied with the late onset of rainy seasons, which may have adverse implications, rendering their planning and decision-making processes more challenging and leading to suboptimal decisions and diminished productivity (Mugalavai et al., 2008; Ngetich et al., 2014). We analyzed the perception of extreme weather events and drought singled out the most perceived extreme climatic event across the three study sites, with Severity Index (SI) of 87%. These drought occurrences have far-reaching implications for smallholder farmers, including decline in production, exacerbation of social instability (Ahmad et al., 2022), facilitation of migration and poverty, (Bahta and Myeki, 2022), and the distressed selling of livestock by impoverished rural households to meet their food needs (Vetter et al., 2020). We suggest that development and use of appropriate decision support tools (Phelan et al., 2018) may help producers compare available options for adaptation to drought, including destocking, purchasing of external feed, and agistment.

Our findings indicate that 74% of SPFs have been practicing fodder production for 15–20 years, suggesting their long-standing engagement in this sector, which can be attributed to the intricate interplay of several key factors. Foremost, the favorable market demand and price incentives for fodder, particularly linked to the burgeoning live livestock export trade to Gulf states, have provided a strong economic impetus for smallholders to continue investing in fodder cultivation over an extended period (Mohamud et al., 2022). For instance, the prices of fodder in Somaliland vary between seasons, where six-ton full truck load is $300 or 7 kg bale is $6 in dry season and peak during the dry season when the price of full truck load goes up to $1,000 or 7 kg bale is sold $15. Somaliland’s annual small ruminant export demands around 60,000 tons of grass, which translates to livestock exporters spending between $3,000,000 and $5,000,000 on fodder, subject to seasonal variations. Additionally, the early establishment of strategic quarantine centers heightened demand for fodder, as livestock undergo mandatory resting periods and rigorous health inspections prior to export, necessitating increased feed supply to sustain the animals during this transitional phase (Mamo, 2019; Mtimet et al., 2021). Finally, the minimum input effort and the size and composition of smallholders livestock herds to feed their livestock can influence the demand for fodder production (Wanyoike et al., 2023).

Our analysis revealed that the primary actual adaptation strategies adopted include construction of fodder storage facilities, fodder diversification, and use of local available chemicals to protect insects – all of which are indigenous approaches (Berhe et al., 2017). This highlights the minimal role of external entities such as government agencies, NGOs or development organizations in supporting adaptation in the region. Corroborating this observation, a recent study by Hasibuan et al. (2023) insists that the areas solely relying on indigenous adaptation strategies tend to receive less external adaptation support. In contrast, the intended adaptation strategies identified in the region encompass the introduction of drought-tolerant fodder varieties, the development of modern fodder storage facilities, the provision of reliable and timely early warning information, as well as the adoption of irrigation systems (Simotwo et al., 2018). This underscores the perceived need for technological (Thomas and Thomas, 2019) and informational (Angerer, 2012) interventions to sustain the fodder production sector, as also evidenced by prior studies (Balehegn et al., 2020; Mengistu et al., 2021).

We also showed the strong connection between SFPs perceptions of climate change and their adaptation strategies (Khan et al., 2020). Their perception of a reduction in precipitation and sustained rise in temperature reflect some of the intended adaptation strategies detailed in the study. For instance, their intention to introduce heat resistant and drought tolerant varieties to extreme weather events have a connection on the perceived precipitation reduction and sustained rise in temperature and generally shed light the connection between their perception and adaptation strategies. Smallholder farmers agreed unanimously in the FGD that they intend to adopt irrigation and innovative modern storage facilities. This is good indicator that SFPs not only perceive reduction in precipitation, but also worried about how this reduction will impact their fodder production and eventually their livelihoods (Batungwanayo et al., 2023).

Unlike farm size and tenure, we showed that knowledge of climate change, and household income are significantly associated with the adoption level (Berhe et al., 2017; Simotwo et al., 2018). Meaning initiatives such as awareness campaigns, workshops, training, and the integration of relevant coursework into educational curricula, can significantly bolster the adoption of adaptation strategies among SFPs. For instance, a study by Ayanlade et al. (2017) found that farmers with a better understanding of climate change trends were more likely to adopt adaptation strategies, such as changing planting dates, diversifying crop varieties, and implementing soil and water conservation techniques. Wealthier farmers are often better positioned to adopt by investing in costly adaptation measures, daring decisions like destocking during drought periods, construction of modern fodder storage facilities or the buying drought-resistant fodder varieties (Singh et al., 2017; Taylor et al., 2021). In contrary, It’s also presumed that larger farm sizes may have lower ability to adopt, thereby weakening the capabilities of SFPs. This finding supports other research, which show an inverse proportional relationship between farm size and adoption (Manandhar et al., 2011). In general, these results underscore the crucial role that awareness and financial resources play in influencing the adoption of climate change adaptation strategies among the studied population. Increased risk-taking capacity and improved access to information and markets contribute to the significant relationship between higher household income and adoption levels.

While the study provides valuable insights into the perceptions and adaptation strategies of SFPs in dryland areas, it is important to acknowledge the limitations that may affect its generalizability to other contexts. The regional specificity and focus on commercially oriented producers restrict the broader applicability of the findings. However, the study still offers informative insights for similar dryland areas, highlighting the need for future research to address these constraints and explore diverse smallholder farming contexts. The significance of this study is multifaceted. It validates SFPs observations of climate change impacts and identifies their actual and intended adaptation strategies, while also revealing key constraints to adoption of these practices and underscoring the critical roles of knowledge, financial resources, and gender dynamics in enabling or inhibiting adaptive potential. Importantly, these insights can inform the development of more effective and inclusive policies and interventions to support climate change adaptation in vulnerable smallholder farming communities.

To enhance climate change adaptation among SFPs in dryland areas, we recommend the government, international partners and other stakeholders to implement a comprehensive awareness, workshops, and educational initiatives that improve SFPs understanding of climate change trends and impacts. The provision of targeted financial support, such as subsidies or credit programs (Mohamed Sala et al., 2020), would enable these farmers to invest in improved adaptation measures, such as fodder storage facilities and drought-resistant fodder varieties. The main limitations of modern fodder storage facilities include higher capital costs, complex operational requirements, technological complexity, and potential incompatibility with existing practices (Barsila et al., 2022; Wang et al., 2021) Additionally, shared community storage can raise conflicts over usage and control. The existing low-tech fodder storage methods, such as fodder pits, may have limited storage capacity, lead to fodder quality degradation, be susceptible to spoilage and wastage, and require labor-intensive management (Sharma et al., 2020). Given these trade-offs, our study recommends supporting the improvement and streamlining of simple, low-tech, locally available fodder storage methods, rather than pushing for costly modern facilities. This approach builds on farmers’ existing knowledge and resource constraints, providing financial assistance to enhance or expand their traditional storage infrastructure as needed and create better outcomes (Sima et al., 2015).

Given that drought is a prevalent and impactful concern, and SFPs are particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of late onset rainfall, which can lead to economic losses, hence recommended the adoption of irrigation systems (Sima et al., 2015). Given the limited resources of many pastoral communities, the most appropriate irrigation solutions are likely to be simple, easy-to-maintain systems that can be operated with minimal machinery and technical expertise, such as treadle pumps or gravity-fed drip irrigation (Awotide et al., 2016). Strengthening early warning systems and improving the timely dissemination of climate information would support SFPs decision-making and adaptation planning (Tofu et al., 2023). The integration of locally grounded and externally sourced adaptation strategies, facilitated through collaboration among SFPs, governments and other partners, is likely to be more effective than a single, isolated approach. To this end, our study encourages the introduction of the role of external entities, such as government agencies, NGOs or development organizations while also supporting further the development of existing ones. This way will bolster the resilience of local communities in a more sustainable way.